If you can get your money on at better odds than the probability of it occuring, then it represents a good bet.
however, a "bet" is exactly what it is. A high risk "flyer" strategy that must only be attempted with loose cash (perhaps from a previous greater than anticipated profit?) so that seeing the options expire worthless doesn't make one cry.
My option positions are typically $500-$2000 and represent less than 5% of my account. I think most recommend not holding options beyond 10% of one's account value, which is appropriate for me, as I don't do "salvage" operations.
All in or bust. If I'm wrong, I get a zero return. I write my opening OTM option transactions into my trading book as a "straight loss" as soon as I open it - I don't wait for a worthless expiry. This makes my tax positions look nice come march/april of each year to be sure! If the position unexpectedly runs into the money at the last minute, then dammit I'll just have to pay some tax.....
Needless to say, I do 90% of my annual option trades based on expiries in march/april!
Still eyeing up April 5.0 NG calls for a tick once that underlying price passes Christmas at below 4.0!
I'll also be looking at May 1200 puts on beans, March 116/124 Tbond combo, and the piece de la resistance - March 200 puts on coffee - I'm wanting to pick them up at a tick each, so work out yourselves how extreme the underlying has to be before that is achievable. In the meantime, I am doing nothing, which unlike Ebay "joke bidding/offering" costs me nothing!