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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

U.S.$ Index/Major Test Dead Ahead *PIC*

The U.S.$ Index has been in a secular bear market for 9 years now with 3 multi month rallies inbetween. One in 2005 another in 2008-09 and another in 2010. Those rallies went up 15% to 20% and sold off again. What is important long term is the last three lows have been higher since 2008. The April 2008 low was at 71.00 and the 2009 low was at 74.25 and the 2010 low was at 75 and slightly below the uptrendline. And the rallies have stopped at just over 89 on each of the three rallies. Price is now once again approaching this mild uptrendline of 2008, 2009 and 2010. A break below 75 would be a lower low than the Nov/10 low and suggest an end to higher lows and a return to a declining dollar. Presently both lower indicators shown are back in Bear territory under their 0 and 50 lines. This test whether it breaks or serves as a bottom for a new rally "should have" major consequences for commodities and most other markets. Next week some major political/economic decisions are to be made strongly influencing the dollar as well. Definitely a time to be paying close attention to DX and other tradable markets.