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Re: Nat. Gas: Looks gd for 3.25 ar :)/Wayne/Coral

Hi Wayne, Coral
Looks like you are looking at NGK11 May.

I have been looking at Apr, but May may become most active month.

But I see no reason for NG price to decline as consumption is pretty much fixed even though supplies are on the high side EXCEPT ....

MORE DOWNTURN in the economy would reduce industrial consumption, the only real variable in usage. The rest has too long a lead time for changes to effect consumption.

I.E. Trades Chicago taxis using CNG, Heating/cooling both residential/commercial, and Elec. power generation usage are pretty much fixed with a rather long lead time for changes in consumption.

SOOOOO, a drop in NG to 3.25 looks like an expectation of a serious drop in economic activity/industrial consumption in the offing AND a potential "fire sale" by some producers to keep the "revenue stream" going to stay alive !!!!

I do not see any way that NG can be/become a meaningful alternative to Crude in the shorter term, certainly for a year or more.

Really curious on this. This is why I became interested in "production costs". Look at a long term chart of NG, I can only go back to 1992 but there was a "floor" in the mid $2 range for a long time and I'm sure production costs have gone up, if for no other reason than inflation. BUTTT, I'm sure technology improvements have reduced production costs over time as well. SOOOOO ?????

NG dropping to 3.25 may be "a canary in the mine" as far as our economy goes looking forward ?????


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Re: Nat. Gas: Looks gd for 3.25 ar :)/Wayne/Coral