There is alot of wisdom in what you say there Wayne. I just disagree with some assumptions that are always present in these discussions. For instance, You said "no need to top pick". If a trader does not study true market behavior (as 99% don't) then you are correct, they will lose most of the time trying to pick a top or bottom.
But it has been demonstrated that it is possible, if one studies the recurring market movements, to know when a turn in the market is going to happen. THE MAJOR low of 9-8-09 in corn was forecasted many weeks in advance. The proof of its power, was that it was stated that that low would not be broken for months and months. We are now over a year and a half from that date and that low has not been seriously challenged. What's more the market rallied $4.45!!!!! A method that can conclude (before it happens) that a point of that magnitude will be made is inspiring to say the least! It quite frankly bores me to no end to expend energy on methods that are so vague, when something so powerful CAN be achieved.
Now undoubtedly, someone is thinking about the end of September 2010 when I thought corn would make a major top, only to have corn continue marching higher. That is an example of not having complete understanding yet of all the cycles. If someone wants to point to that as a failure, I welcome that. Cycles got allowed me to get on the right side of Corn dropping 70 some cents in a few days. Obviously I got stopped out when that went higher. I thought it would be a top that wouldn't get broken for a long time, but it was still a top that I was able to correctly position.
The point is, there is so much more possible than what people even consider.