Welcome to the TFC Commodity Trading Forum.
Please feel welcome to join in on these informative ongoing discussions about trading futures and commodities.

The Trading Forum is intended for the open discussion of commodities trading. The management of this Forum does not agree or disagree with the ideas exchanged, and does not exert editorial control over the message posted herein. Read and post at your own risk. The risk of loss in trading or commodities can be substantial. We discourage the use of this Forum to promote trading that is acknowledged to be risky. Please note: many links from the Forum lead to pages on other web sites. We cannot take responsibility for nor endorse the information presented on those sites.

TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Yen Longs Continue to Sweat

It’s a fascinating game playing out in USDJPY now, with the big question: at what point will speculators get margined out of their long positions? What price point would it take on the downside to tip 50.001% of the specs short positions onto a margin call? The battle lines between the Bank of Japan and speculators is probably going to be drawn somewhere below 80.00, would be my guess. What we need to be mindful of in this, what traders call a “squeeze”, is that this is not “a zero sum game”, as it would be in cotton, or corn, where the supply is finite. The “shorts’ in this market, presumably the BOJ, do have some influence on the supply of currency, and do exert influence on the primary dealers of securities worldwide. The majority of the long on the other hand are speculators who have no influence other than exiting their positions, or putting on more long positions. And I’m also guessing there are a new crop of shorts strung out, based on the amount of e-mails I’ve been getting in my “junk” folder nearly every day for the past 3 months from a hedge fund trader turned internet marketer who is convinced fortunes will be made shorting the yen — buying USDJPY — because, among other things, hedge funds have already bet fortunes on the same trade.