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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Bubble in Yen

There are definitely times in trading where you need to know not to trade. Generally those times are when the majors are showing conflicting trends, such as today where the daily trend was up for EURUSD yet down for AUDUSD, and markets become tangled up on the intraday time frames. Currencies tend to give the strongest moves when they are aligned and moving together. Currencies tend toward counter-trending, choppy movement when the higher time frames trends are conflicting. The conflict often occurs when markets are consolidating following a trending move, or topping or bottoming following a period when they were aligned. Professional traders commonly refer to these times as ‘the spin cycle”, and do their best to avoid them. There is a cycle to markets where when they are aligned and trending a large percentage of speculators are profitable. Then when markets recoil and switch over to the spin cycle, the majority of retail account holders lose their profits and then some.