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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Large-range Pivot Point to Pivot Point Trades *PIC*



Good morning,

Running from Pivot Point to Pivot Point, Wednesday was a nice
large-range trading day in the E-mini.

We got big bites out of both of the Bear plunges, and even got
a nice bite out of the rebound back up to the S1.

Sitting and waiting has finally paid off.

Enjoy and be well,


E-mini ES H1
Wednesday March 16, 2011

NOTE: The charting service has still not corrected the time
axis for daylight savings time. In my commentary I will try
to remember to add 1 hour to what you see on the charts.
Don't get too confused!

Morning session opens gap-down at the Pivot, skids sideways, and finally bounces to close the opening gap.

1 = DT Multi-top off the Close. No Volume and no Price Window to the Pivot.

A = Volume comes to life (pink arrow), blasting a giant red candle through the Pivot, and pulling us in.
Initial stop advances above the Pivot.

B = DVS (pink arrow) plunges a giant red candle all the way to the S1. When the Price Action retracts,
we have a Pivot Scalp Exit Signal. +/- 10.75 points About time!

2 = Tough call. Is this actually a white Bull Dragonfly or is it a DVS-based 2-bar Reversal? When the
Volume drops on the next candle we let it go.

If you took this as a Signal, you got promptly taken out for a loss.

Volume droops, and so does Price Action. Lunchtime drifts sideways along the S1.

NOTE: Even during lunchtime drift the ABS is bloated today.
Expand the stop, entry, and Maximum Profit Giveback (MPG)
placements so we don't get taken out at every flicker.

3 = A 123 kickoff from the S1. It's 2:00 (not 1:00 as the chart shows), so we are interested, but the
Volume is still at lunchtime levels.

3 = Volume swells (pink arrow), and the Price Action breaks free (blue arrow), pulling us in below the Low.
Initial stop advances above the Low for well controlled At risk.

C = Small gap and a large red candle. That's two elongated bottom wicks, so, warily, use my convention
and slip the stop into the gap for Free Trade.

D = Late-in-the-Move DVS (pink arrow) is a bad sign. Ignoring the ABS and placement expansion, most of
us chickens exit as Price Action retraces >2 points. +/- 6 points

E = If you bravely/greedily trusted our ABS readings and held on, this giant red candle puts your position
in MPG violation. Mental stop at Giveback Level.

When the next (white) candle retraces to Giveback, exit with slippage. +/- 10 points

4 = Monster 2-bar Reversal off the S2.

F = We are pulled in on the next white candle, advancing the stop under the low of the candle.

G = Large white candle. Per PMT stop rules, scoot the profit-locking stop under the low of the candle.

H = Large white candle, and once again our position is in MPG violation. Mental stop at Giveback Level.

J = Late-in-the-Move DVS (pink arrow) combines with the Price Action spiking through the S1 and retracting,
confirming our decision to Pivot Scalp exit. +/- 8.50 points

5 = As the PMT entry clock winds down, the tape displays a Double Top pattern Reversal at the S1. The
move doesn't materialize.

EOD Price Action dips to the Low where the day closes.

(Daily, bottom chart)

Wednesday taped another huge red day candle. The Bears give
no sign of stopping to breathe, but the odds of a smaller-ranged
candle on Thursday are good (unless the world situation continues
to deteriorate . . . )


REMEMBER: Trade the Tape, Not my Prognostics!

=] ;-)>

Wednesday's PMT Chart: