Welcome to the TFC Commodity Trading Forum.
Please feel welcome to join in on these informative ongoing discussions about trading futures and commodities.

The Trading Forum is intended for the open discussion of commodities trading. The management of this Forum does not agree or disagree with the ideas exchanged, and does not exert editorial control over the message posted herein. Read and post at your own risk. The risk of loss in trading or commodities can be substantial. We discourage the use of this Forum to promote trading that is acknowledged to be risky. Please note: many links from the Forum lead to pages on other web sites. We cannot take responsibility for nor endorse the information presented on those sites.

TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: The Advantages of Trend Trading/Wayne/Lee *PIC*

Here is the May Corn chart again. Recall I said there was very little resistance at 672 (plus see the gap just above where no trading took place) and 'if' price could run up that far it could easily blow through there and even double top. Normally one could have had a stop just above the next resistance level. But here is the May Corn chart again and I thought this purple line could help when trading it or other stuff. I use it religiously with stocks and various ETFs and looking at the commodity charts it seems to work just as well unless the commodity has an extremely high beta and is erratic and volatile. If that's the case you'd spot it immediately from past price action. What I'm talking about is the "20ema on the Daily chart" marketed in purple. With most trending markets price will ride the 20ema with occasional drops below and then jump on top of it again and ride it while price trends up. But when price drops below AND stays below and turns the 20ema down you will see price run up to the underside of the 20ema and then sell off again. One could almost use this as a stand alone indicator and only stay long when price is above the 'rising' 20ema. See how being long the uptrend with price above the 'rising' 20ema and then stepping off the trade while price is below the 20ema and then stepping back on when above again catches the bulk of the run up and also avoids most of the sell offs.

In a pronounced downtrend one can even start shorting when price runs back up and touches the 'falling 20ema.' If it crossed up over it again for a couple of days you would get out of the short and get long on a 2-3 day close above the 20ema again. It works like a hot damn with stocks I know that. Doesn't look so bad with May Corn either so far.

OK then, using this 20ema as a signal notice price today stopped cold on the falling 20ema. I would get off the long trade now regardless of the breakout over 672 as this could stop the rally. And I would wait to see a 2-3 day close above the 20ema to confirm the uptrend is intact and will continue. Price often finds the falling 20ema as resistance and sells off again. So keep an eye on the trade and how price relates to the 20ema. I would be out now and waiting for a 2 day "close" above the 20ema to get long again. Or a failure here and another sell off again. Just watch what happens and how it relates to the 20ema. The Stochastics indicator suggests the rally will continue as it is curling up from under 20 but I would still be out until I see a 2 day 'close' above the 20ema.

Messages In This Thread

Re: The Advantages of Trend Trading/Wayne/Lee *PIC*