No argument on your thoughts, but I might question the timing as follows ....
First though, which month are you looking at ? I think you mentioned buying some calls ???
My problem with Ng is:
The only thing I see changing in Ng short term (call it fundamentals if you like) is the knee jerk reaction to Nuclear and folks jumping on the Ng wagon as the "best fuel" to replace Nuclear power !! That will take YEARS to evolve.
The only "short term" impact on Ng fundamentals (consumption) in the power industry would be (lets say) a shutdown of the Indian Point plant in New York (2000 Mw output) over emotion/politics what ever. There are a substantial number of "peak usage" plants in the region using Ng that could be brought on line full time to try to replace the output of Indian point. That you would see short term, otherwise you are looking at "years" to bring new gas fired generating plants on line.
I don't see that happening in the time frame you are looking at for trading Ng.
Otherwise I think Ng will continue to do just what it always has - do just the opposite of what you might logically expect !!!
Not putting your thoughts down. If one could ever figure this sucker out there is a LOT of money to be made - just look at the chart, but it never goes where one would expect.
Back to Indian Point ... Just now a big discussion on David Letterman on "Just dismantle that sucker". If that were to catch the "political eye" for vote gathering, it could happen. They would clearly "soft peddle" what would happen to electricity bills. But there goes your Ng on up, up. But still too far off to matter in realistic trading.
What will drive Ng consumption UP is a pick up in the economy where plants are using more Ng. So if you see/sense industrial production picking up would be time to pay close attention !!