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Re: The New Bull Thesis for Currencies

Hi Trout. Hope all is well on your side of the line. Mine's great as long as I don't look too hard for problems. I can't help but notice so many Canadians up here wanting to suddenly hedge their U.S.$ accounts. You tend to see that when CD is peaking. Reminds me of 2008. I switched all my money into U.S.$ in mid July/08 at par after I was convinced it wasn't going to bounce back to the 1.10 area it had come from with the spike up in late 2007. From July/08 at par to Oct/08 CD fell to 77. I switched back and forth for a while in 2009 at the key chart points and did better at that than trading stocks. But I switched into U.S.$ late last year despite the ugly DX chart as there is nothing to trade on Canadian markets and it drove me nuts. But here we are again with 94% bullish sentiment on CD$ and the reverse sentiment on DX that everyone and his dog has shorted. Sounds like the same old song once again. The best phrase I ever heard and heeded after in everything I do was "If it's obvious it's obviously wrong." That has saved my ass and made me money time and time again. Great heads up indicator. Now the trend is your friend so an average bullish or bearish sentiment doesn't mean much until it reaches extremes. Then at extremes you get a tide change as all the money is in at that point and stretched out to the max. So we'll see. AD and CD could bounce somewhat but I think its almost midnight for Cinderella.

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Re: The New Bull Thesis for Currencies