Welcome to the TFC Commodity Trading Forum.
Please feel welcome to join in on these informative ongoing discussions about trading futures and commodities.

The Trading Forum is intended for the open discussion of commodities trading. The management of this Forum does not agree or disagree with the ideas exchanged, and does not exert editorial control over the message posted herein. Read and post at your own risk. The risk of loss in trading or commodities can be substantial. We discourage the use of this Forum to promote trading that is acknowledged to be risky. Please note: many links from the Forum lead to pages on other web sites. We cannot take responsibility for nor endorse the information presented on those sites.

TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Dx, Ng/Haligonian
In Response To: Re: Dx, Ng/Trades ()

Price would need to close above Friday's close so it's best to wait the last few minutes of the trading day to make the trade if it is to confirm. The short term indicator I developed would take a lot of explaining but all it tells me is price is going to run back to the 20ema. That is it and it doesn't guarantee anything more than that. It can run through it but odds are most of the time it wont so one needs to play the odds. Only a strong couple of closes above the 20ema that then flattens the 20ema out and more importantly turns it back up again would turn the chart bullish. And if that 20ema if falling price is more likely to stop 'near' there and reverse back down again. So UNG has a falling 20ema now with price well below it so odds are even with a buy signal price can only be expected to run to the falling 20ema which now is at about 11.15. So not a good trade overall and it is countertrend as well. But the bottoming patterns seen in Sept,Oct,Dec,March and April this looks like another one like those which also suggests a run up again.

With the SPX and other markets at a turning point and line in the sand drawn it was one of the few trades that I thought might be just as good as the inverse ETFs or other ones.

Messages In This Thread

Re: Dx, Ng/Haligonian