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Re: Natgas Weekly/Ronbo
In Response To: Re: Natgas Weekly/Trades ()

Thanks for the postive comments Ronbo. Much better than condemnation from being incorrect at times,lol. But the Seasonal trend charts while never perfect in any single year are good for reflecting the typical fundamentals that drive price. And like all commodities major companies that produce products tend to buy these commodities ahead of time to provide finished products. Like Gasoline's strong seasonals 'before' driving season. Or Gold bottoming in the summer 'before' the strong buying period in the fall and winter. So looking at that NG seasonal chart it shows that 'historically' mid June til the end of July is the most bearish time of the year for Nat Gas. My Moore Research seasonals show the 5 year and 15 year trend overlaid and both show this mid June high and the strongest selloff of the year into the 3rd week of July. So that is the historic seasonal trend of Nat Gas. And while the bullish periods haven't done much on the upside that doesn't mean seasonals are not working. It just means regarding the upside there hasn't been strength due to the fact Nat Gas is in a bear market. The bearish seasonals are far more likely to work as that is the present trend. After all not just price but the fundamentals are extremely bearish with such high supply of NG with recent technology and the cost of converting Oil burning machinery still high and with a sluggish economy no one is in the mood for expensive structural changes. Not something that happens overnight. But price is king and needs to clear recent price resistance to mean anything at all. Doesn't hurt to build a position for now as long as it doesn't deteriorate but basebuilding can take a long time. I don't have that kind of patience and will wait until the bell goes off on the breakout and pay a little more.

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Re: Natgas Weekly/Ronbo