Hi Lee...to early to say if my buys thursday am didn't work out. I bought NG long ETFs , not NG futures, and they are currently a little in the green. To decide when to buy or sell, I track the weather anteceedently, and look at forecasts for the next 2 weeks. In doing so for the past several years I've seen a pattern emerge where one can crudely predict the storage number using weather data alone. Not precisely, but whether or not the storge number will be near, above, or below the seasonal average. My buys Thursday morning were based on my sense that the storage number would be above the seasonal average (although I didn't think it would be above by as much as it was) so I was ready to buy after the EIA number came out, and picked up some HNU.TO quite cheaply when NG prices plunged. Based on forecasts, I believe this weeks injection number (to be published June 30) will be very close to seasonal averages and that the following weeks number on July 7th, will be lower than seasonal...potentially up to 10% lower. What keeps me bullish too is the possibility of a Gulf of Mexico hurricane this summer...but that's a lot more of a crap shoot.

Obviously the supply/demand curve involves a lot more than just weather, but it would take a much more in-depth analysis to clarify that. The secular trends in NG are very strong, as is the seasonality, but on top of those is the weather and that is where I like to think I have a small edge. Cheers.