Some interesting tidbits:
Meanwhile, ICE Cocoa prices have edged higher on supportive Q2 grindings data. Released this morning, data by the European Cocoa Association (ECA) showed that European Q2 grindings rose a higher than expected 8.3% y/y to 355.59Kt. Q2 German cocoa grindings data rose 21.2% y/y to 101.65Kt (Reuters).
Some tidbits of interest:
Cocoa grindings in Cameroon by Sic- Cacaos, the country’s biggest processor, increased 72 percent in 10 months ended in May for the 2010-11 season, according to the West African nation’s Cocoa and Coffee Board. Grindings rose to 30,264 metric tons from 17,568 tons in the same 10 months a year earlier, the board said.
European Q2 cocoa grind expected to be slightly up
Thursday July 14 2011
SECOND quarter European cocoa grindings are expected to be slightly up on the same period last year, as the temporary closure of capacity in top producer Ivory Coast continued to boost grindings in other regions in April and May, dealers said.
First quarter European grindings rose by 3.5% on the year earlier, partly boosted by the lack of activity in Ivory Coast.
Cocoa prices rose to a 2-month high, but remain well below March's 32-year high. Bullish factors include (1) concerns over Ivory Coast cocoa bean quality due to Black Pod disease, (2) the +3.5% y/y increase in Q1 European cocoa grindings, the first gain in 2 quarters, and (3) ICO's hike in its 2010-11 global grindings estimate to a record 3.798 MMT. Bearish factors include (1) Olam International's prediction of a +350,000 MT global surplus for the 2010/11 season with record crops in Ivory Coast and Ghana, and (2) ICO's prediction that 2010/11 global cocoa production will climb 10.9% to 4.025 MMT and the hike in its 2010/11 global cocoa surplus estimate to 187,000 MT, up 68,000 MT from its Feb estimate.
Fundamental Outlook-Near-Term Bullish -Cocoa prices firmed but they remain well below their 32-yr high. Long-term fundamentals remain supportive with ICO's hike in its deficit estimate for the 2009/10 (Oct-Sep) marketing year to 89,000 MT. World cocoa output is 3.630 MMT in 2009/10 and ICO predicts a 10.9% increase to 4.025 MMT for 2010/11. Demand in 2010/11 is forecast up 3.1%, but higher output will lead to a +11.5% gain in ending stocks to 1.816 MMT. The stocks/consumption ratio is forecast at 47.8% vs the yr-earlier 44.2%.