Figured that you could be "jarred to life" !!!!
Yes, it has been a few weeks since we discussed that "inner/outer" range and you posted the chart. The inner was 4.2-4.7 and the Outer was 4.0-4.9, It did break below 4.2 briefly to near 4.0 before beginning the recent run up.
I think we allowed that trading in that overall, year long channel, had it's risks. I for sure had no idea what the next day would bring. Look at the chart. It was like a YoYo for the last year !!! But that 4.2 to 4.7 channel is worth about 1200 for an Emini contract, so pieces of it add up !!! Especially if not much else worthwhile going on.
Production seems to be fairly constant, so I suspect the Hot Weather may push price up for a bit, but what happens when it gets to 4.8 or so ??? Come right back down and do it all over again ???? But with the storage builds likely to be on the low side through this Heat (say end of Aug.) price may run on up as we go into heating season with low stocks ???
I don't know, but has been fun looking at the possibilities.
Stay cool, burn gas !!