The tropical wave we've been tracking, currently south of western Cuba in open waters, has improved in organization overnight as it moves just N of W at about 15 mi/hr. Although it does not yet appear to have a closed circulation, conditions are fairly favorable for further slow development as it continues toward the Gulf of Mexico. The Hurricane Center has given it, this morning, a 20% chance of development during the next 48h; to me this may be a little low and i would put it closer to 30.