OK, AND I know you wrote this back to CJ.
I agree with everything you just said, and it isn't the first time we have discussed charts and their validity.
The problem I have with the Ng market is that it is very difficult to trade. By the time something shows up in the chart, it is headed somewhere else !! I think Hal called it the "widow maker" or some such !!!
Even though "production is large/huge" and likely growing with the shale production, there are still market constraints.
Consumption is "also huge" and the "heat dome" you mention will show it's face at some point. My point is, to know that it will show it's face at some point and be prepared to react to it.
This market may stay in the "trading range" that it is currently in, or maybe even dribble lower as time goes on. How far will it drop through August on the "seasonal trend" ??
But, if it turns on "high heat/power burn" or a hurricane, I may well go with it. That may just be enoug to send it to the top of the channel !!
In any event, I will be watching September as well, The rise in the market may well be the hurricanes in that time frame as well. So, We'll see !!!