It should be obvious. Most of the models shifted the track slightly east this afternoon which I think may have caused the drop. This evenings runs have however shifted slightly west again so it wil be interesting to see what the market makes of this and subsequent developments. Either way its a big storm destined to do some damage to Puerto Rico tonight and tomorrow , and Hispanola late monday-tuesday (poor Haiti!) and then we will see...east or west coast FL. No matter what the precise track, it will be big enough to affect the entire state.