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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: adding puts to my collection -Ronbo *PIC*

The parabolic nature of the Gold rally and the bullish sentiment reaching 93% with everyone and his dog buying Gold does suggest a significant top. But price did correct for 3 days down to the low $1700 area and bounced back strongly and quickly suggesting there was a lot of strength in this market. And counter trend trades tend to end badly as the trend is your friend. I would not short Gold with someone elses money as it is a high risk trade. But to each their own. Sept is also the strongest month of the year historically and quite consistently. As far as Silver goes here is the chart I posted some time ago showing the channel of $5.50 and how a breakout projected a rally to 44.50. Price hit that level in mid August and is now simply trading in the new channel. Silver is more an industrial metal than precious being used over 40% in industry. So it will do what the overall economy will likely do. And it does appear another recession began in early May. Silver is underperforming Gold again due to this. What did impress me is the breakout of the major Gold stock ETF:GDX breaking out over triple resistance of $44 on strong volume. That was major resistance and being stocks rather than Gold itself that will typically rise and fall with the broad stock market showed remarkable strength recently including the big breakout Friday even with the broad market selling off. I don't care or wish for anything to go in a particular direction as I just want to be on the right side of any trade and when in doubt will stay out as I don't ever want to be on the wrong side of a trade. Not losing is the most important rule I live by. I drew a chart of my account balance years ago and do this now and again and noticed if I hadn't had big down drafts now and again on my chart I would have had a dramatically better trading account balance. Amazing the difference not losing can make. It is far more important but not nearly as exciting as making more money is.