Welcome to the TFC Commodity Trading Forum.
Please feel welcome to join in on these informative ongoing discussions about trading futures and commodities.

The Trading Forum is intended for the open discussion of commodities trading. The management of this Forum does not agree or disagree with the ideas exchanged, and does not exert editorial control over the message posted herein. Read and post at your own risk. The risk of loss in trading or commodities can be substantial. We discourage the use of this Forum to promote trading that is acknowledged to be risky. Please note: many links from the Forum lead to pages on other web sites. We cannot take responsibility for nor endorse the information presented on those sites.

TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Nat Gas/Lee
In Response To: Re: Nat Gas/Lee/Trades ()

Higher lows and lower highs create a Symmetrical Triangle and on a short time frame a Pennant. There are patterns without a bullish or bearish bias by themselves. In theory a Symmetrical Triangle that forms after a major selloff is still bearish as the triangle is viewed as a 'continuation pattern'. But the breakout over one of the two converging lines is what's important and at the 3/4 point of the pattern not all the way into the apex. A Wedge only occurrs when 'both' lines containing the price action is in the same direction. Many people call Triangles Wedges as they do wedge together so they confuse them. To confirm a Wedge you should always have the converging falling upper line and converging falling lower line tagged 3 times each to confirm. A Wedge is an unusual pattern that when falling is bullish and when rising is bearish. Don't start looking for them as you will find them all too often and they are often just part of another pattern. When you see a falling Wedge that covers weeks or months you watch for the upper downtrendline above for a breakout which tends to be strong if it occurs at the 3/4 point in the pattern. When price goes right to the end of the apex forget it as it is not a valid Wedge but part of something else. You want also to see volume fall off when in the Wedge as well. Rules are important in chart patterns to validate them as there are patterns within patterns and many are simply incomplete patterns only developing. End of lecture for Wedges,lol. But the main point here is to watch that upper downtrendline for a breakout or the 2 year uptrendline PLUS the March lows to hold to confirm a strong move either way. As I said the only way I'd trade this now is with an Option Strangle. This would be a good time to put one on looking at a normally volatile commodity that has quieted down to a tight pattern. You do need lots of time for it to develop and run so a January Strangle would be the ticket I would think with the options expiring in Dec. Keep in mind Nov is the most active month now and then January. The Jan options would give you 3 months to work. And it is either going to or not. Either way "IF" there is a breakout or breakdown in price the Strangle will catch it. All you need then is some movement on the break. Typically when a normally volatile commodity quiets down and goes nowhere the option prices get dirt cheap. I don't track NG option prices so don't know how much premium they are asking now and if its a little or a lot for sure. As far as the RSI 21 and Modified MACD go both are showing positive divergences on recent lows and are getting stronger here. They are a good heads up for sure and I've made many trades off them when seeing this but in a bear trend you do need price to confirm a breakout to confirm a change in trend to up at least short term. In a bull trend just a pullback to support with positive divergences work well. But in this situation an Option Strangle is your better play rather than a countertrend trade that may or may not work out with any strength.