5 months ago, I posted a prediction on this public website. I decided to prove once again the value of having knowledge of cycles. It was the end of April. There were many weeks left in the volatile season where grain markets have historically had wild explosive rallies. At the time, there was much fundamental talk on this forum (and elsewhere) giving reasons why one should expect Corn and Soybeans to continue marching higher. The grains were scaring everyone. Their consistent march higher for months and months had convinced everyone to steer clear of this raging bull. In this environment, I made the decision to put my reputation as an analyst on the line. I published a bold, specific opinion/prediction that the grains would not make any new highs on the nearby chart. The message did not contain "might", "maybe", "if", "but the market has the final say". I gave myself no wiggle room.
Just recently on August 31st, nearby soybeans touched $14.56, the same price as Feb. 10th, the point that we identified as a price that would not be broken on the nearby chart. Beans have since begun a persistent decline, proving the value of the cycle prediction. Corn's identified price was the $7.84 top on April 11. The most recent run into the end of August stalled out at $7.65 on the nearby chart, below the April 11 price. The only point in time where Corn has exceeded our benchmark was on June 9. It traded to $7.99 on June 9. The corn market broke our identified price by 16 cents and for 3 days during a historic explosion of price. Wheat's decline began immediately and never did get above the April 26th price. Wheat has since dropped over 3 dollars!
The fact that this prediction has held true for 5 MONTHS is remarkable. How often can someone identify a point that will last even a week or two without it being breached?
I also used that prediction to launch a newsletter subscription. Because of my conviction in understanding these market cycles, the fate of a business venture was put in the balance. Scorn and ridicule would have been the certain result if the grain markets had gone even moderately higher. But they didn't. The individual contracts went a little higher in corn and beans, but the nearby did not, just as predicted. The reader should give some thought as to what has been demonstrated in plain sight, in real time, and on a public forum. There is really only one way an analyst can prove his/her effectiveness, and that is to demonstrate an understanding of market behavior in real time. To any objective observer, we believe this has been done. This was the motivation to go public and declare “the tops are in” on April 30th, 2011.
You can read the April 30th alert as well as many other powerful predictions by visiting grainmarkettiming.com.