The week of Nov 28th - Dec 5th will be warmer than average over the upper Midwest, Great Lakes and New England. Near normal conditions are expected elsewhere over the lower 48 with no sign of a major cold outbreak yet.

This week will be rather active weatherwise as a strong series of storms runs into the Pacific NW bringing heavy rain, strong wind and likely some flooding to western Washington state. Generally cool over the west and northern tier of states for the first half of the week, with warming through the latter half as mild air from the Pacific coastal storms pushes over the Rockies and into the Plains. An active system, just off the California coast this morning, will move east-southeast to North Tx by Tuesday morning where it will intensify an existing frontal boundary ( this morning located from W Tx to northern Virginia) and generate heavy rainfall over N Tx, OK and northern Arkansas on Tuesday. This area of heavy rainfall will move NE and bring heavy rain to much of the E coast and especially Appalachia thru Wednesday. In the warm sector south of the frontal boundary ( much of the SE) expect very mild conditions with a risk of very strong thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes Monday- Wednesday. The front will move offshore early Thursday leaving high pressure and mild conditions in place for much of the East (except New England) for the rest of the day and into the first half of the weekend. Conditions in New England will improve later Thursday with high pressure and mild conditions expected to continue through Sunday. The next Pacific trough will be, by next Friday morning, oriented North-South from New Mexico to Saskatchewan and moving slowly E. In response, a new area of rain and thunderstorms will develop over E Tx Friday morning that will spread N to Chicago by Friday afternoon and slowly move E thru the weekend.

With no realy cold air in sight during the next 2 weeks, net injections of NG are likely to continue unless there is a marked reduction in rig counts and production.