Thanks for the charts, comments.
I think you know that I do not fall in this camp, but do watch it:
"some that keep raving about this "cold weather guarantee" of soaring prices every November"
I am at a bit of a loss at times, take the seasonal charts for example.
Market declined all through Sept./Oct. while the seasonals rose. Then fell off in Nov. consistent with the seasonal chart.
The seasonal chart shows a healthy bounce through mid Dec. so we'll see what happens.
I pay attention to the seasonal chart but would not trade it, just a clue as to what to look for.
I am looking for a price channel of 2.50 to 3.80 to develop. But so far it looks like a support level is trying to form around 3.47 ish.
In my view, nothing much has changed in the overall equation, price should continue down unless a spate of cold weather supports the market with heating demand.
I don't see enough fat in the forward contracts to really interest the storage operators ???
So, with prices as they are, I suspect production has to start falling off. But, for some/many producers cash flow at little or no profit may fit their bill at the moment ???