Yesterday I was seeing fairly subtle hints of a general circulation change over the Pacific and west coast suggesting the possibility of the first honest-to-goodness cold outbreak for the lower 48 of this winter. Well, long range ensembles are now starting to support the Aluetian low being replaced by an alueutian ridge early in January. This sets up the central US for a strong flow straight out of Alaska that week which tends to sag south and east in a few days. This is a very uncertain forecast so unless Santa Claus is super generous....