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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Weather Jan 9th-16th

The temperature pattern as envisaged by the North American ensemble for the 9-16th is not too reliable in my opinion. It indicates above average over most of the lower 48 including the NE. While much of the lower 48 may be fairly mild, I think the upper midwest, Ohio Valley and NE are in for a cold period with only a few short day-or-two long periods of relief through the middle of the month. A semi-stationary vortex is setting up over the NE Canadian Artic for the second week of January (this is a quite stable pattern and a reversal of December's) which will keep NW artic flow periodically surging into the northeastern quadrant of the country.

This week a sharp cold front will drive quite cool air as far south as Florida with north Fl below freezing Tuesday am. The SE will return to more normal temperatures Thursday and the NE will warm up on Friday as a low pressure moving thru eastern Canada drags some milder air northwards - but not to the same anomalous extent that was the case in December. A huge lake-effect storm downwind of all the Great Lakes from now thru early tuesday will blanket much of Michigan, northern OH, NE PA and northern NY with snow that will inhibit temperature recovery over the NE for some time. The Southern plains and TX should warm up thru the week but the next artic surge will cool them off next weekend. The west coast will remain mild thru thru much of the week but begin cooling off friday as some cold air from the gulf of Alaska begins to work its way SE.

Given the holidays and that only part of the eastern cold outbreak will be reflected in this thursdays net withdrawl numbers, I expect a near seasonable number; say around150 bcf.