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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Gold Stocks/Haligonian *LINK*

Yes the Gold stocks are lagging and could turn around. But I guess I'm not that patient waiting and trying to beat a dead horse to run again. Here is the same Bullish Percent of Gold Miners Index made up with Point and Figure charts like you just posted. I overlaid the Gold ETF:GLD in dashed gold along with the major Gold stock ETF:GDX in dashed pink and I have added your major Gold stock ETF:HGU.to on the TSX in solid medium green to compare. Notice it underperforms the GDX and like all the Gold stock groups are underperforming Gold as well. The TSX Gold ETF:HBU.to matches GLD reasonably well and like GLD is a better choice of pure Gold as a trade. You can see the weakness clearly here. What I don't especially like is the CCI 20 indicator running past the upper dashed line of -200 and rolling back down again. The CCI 20 is not a banded indicator like Stochastics or RSI that is banded between 0 and 100. The CCI 20 can keep on going and show extremes in overbought and oversold. The -100 and +100 are warning points of extreme momentum but I mark the indicator at the -200 and +200 with dashed lines to show very extreme momentum points where change takes place in price on a reversal back through the dashed line again begins. And we've seen this overbought signal kick in here. So overall when that occurs the odds are in favor of a selloff. But I do like putting together this chart with overlays to compare along with a few indicators. It does say a lot. But I agree this $BPGDM solid black line is oversold and suggesting a rally from these levels. It just doesn't match up with the price charts with the same signal. I do like all the ducks facing the same direction so I'll just grab what I can when I can until an actual trend develops.