COT has most value at ****extremes****.

Right now we've just had a test of the 09 low with 2+ SD volume, so a hard test. I would think this minor trend turn may find a following if it comes to pass. Of course, we expect nothing but bad news here; the good news comes later on, along with much higher prices.

As for COT, for the better part of a year, the Large traders (green) have been starting to offload a very large short position, despite lower price. This is out of character for trend traders. For 4 months or so, fund Managers (magenta) have been doing the same, ditto. Although not evident on this chart, the Commercials have been near decade long levels for quite awhile.

I would only add that Commercials, Funds, and Large traders spend a bundle for weather models and prognostication; but their main driver has always been the behavior of price. They have no interest in 7-10 day forcasts, as anything beyond is unknowable. These folks are not daytraders.

The best freebee COT site is Software North, which I believe Trades has previously referenced. They provide a somewhat longer term perspective, which is useful in this area.

Lee, you are a question box, which is a good thing; as we all should strive to learn as we go along. CO