Welcome to the TFC Commodity Trading Forum.
Please feel welcome to join in on these informative ongoing discussions about trading futures and commodities.

The Trading Forum is intended for the open discussion of commodities trading. The management of this Forum does not agree or disagree with the ideas exchanged, and does not exert editorial control over the message posted herein. Read and post at your own risk. The risk of loss in trading or commodities can be substantial. We discourage the use of this Forum to promote trading that is acknowledged to be risky. Please note: many links from the Forum lead to pages on other web sites. We cannot take responsibility for nor endorse the information presented on those sites.

TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Latest COT / CRUDE / XLE / Silverbear *PIC*

No, I wasn't familiar with him so thanks for pointing out his blog. Had a peak at it...has some interesting stuff there.

I noticed he is bearish on Crude Oil, as am I for the very short term at least...been shorting the oil stocks over the last week or so (XEG). They are down a good bit today even though crude is relatively flat...the stocks usually lead so I'm looking for a test of the breakout down in the $100-103 area soon. A move below that wouldn't shock me though as this commodity has not been tracking seasonals well in recent months, something Trades has also pointed out. Plus everyone is now convinced that crude simply has no choice but to soar from here into summer driving season. I have serious doubts about that...with the U.S. elections approaching you can be sure that the powers-that-be will do all they can to abort such an economy-killing move that would doom the Obama re-election campaign. All things considered, there are just way too many on the bull side of the boat currently for my taste.

The XLE chart shows the move in the oil stocks...below the 20ema today after breaking under the 5 month trendline (not drawn) on Friday. It was interesting to watch the deflection of the false Saudi pipeline fire story on Thursday that no doubt allowed alot of big players to exit long positions on the spike. Anyway, enough rambling for now, lol...hope all is well with your trading these days Silverbear. See/trade/follow anything interesting lately?