Currencies:­­­­ 14Mar With the US economic situation apparently stabilizing and Europe’s much less certain, the chances of further US Fed easing are receding. As such, with higher implied US interest rates, the Euro and dollar relationship is directionally changing. Most other USD denominated currencies are exhibiting some level of weakness related to the US economic situation as well.

The current BOJ and ECB positions indicate the extreme level of stress we maintain is still in the global economic system. Yesterday’s story of the Chinese rare-earth export restrictions is now a formal WTO dispute.

Aussie: 14Mar Another day of new lows and strong Volume as the Aussie’s negative bias continues. Trend, Momentum and its ROC, and RSI are all falling. Low Volatility speaks to a market comfortable with its direction. The Aussie’s pressure can be traced to the Chinese slow down, the above mentioned trade dispute, and the US relative strength. RSI has fallen into Oversold territory.

The 200 DMA is heading largely sideways and should act as support if the Aussie fall to its level, now 1.0358.

Seasonal Snapshot: all 3 patterns are close to entering into sustained upwardly biased pattens. The 5-yr enters into said pattern in the next day or so. The 15 and 30 yrs are both slated for a sideways bias for the next week or so before turning higher as well.

British: 14Mar Early action keeps the negative Trend in place as today’s high is a 3 ticks below yesterday’s before the market headed lower. Volume, down materially today, is indicative of consolidating action to this point. While Trend and Momentum still are negatively biased, the Momentum’s ROC does show a modest shift to a less negative profile. This should be watched, as the shift is not firmly entrenched at this point. RSI bounced as well, failing to take the Sterling into Oversold territory.