That is exactly why I haven't bought TBT or TBF yet. The equity markets are very overbought and stretched out. While that doesn't mean prices can't continue higher is does reduce the odds dramatically when there hasn't been even a pullback since the Dec/11 lows. Price on the SPX did breakout over the May/11 bull market high of 1370 recently and ran up to the big round number of 1400 clearing away all the shorts and is now 'inbetween' the breakout point of 1370 and 1400 high. Price should typically pullback to the breakout point at least even if this is a breakout that will hold and prices go to the moon. So the next 30 SPX pts should be zig zagging down to the breakout point for the classic pullback after a breakout. Pulling back 30 SPX pts over a period of weeks is likely to cause the reverse in Bonds and see them rally. This is why I am waiting for TBT to pullback to 'around' $20 to re-assess this trade. TBT and other inverse Bond trades has seen a classic bear market down, then 4 month base build and then a breakout over its channel high which is a very text book stage #2 uptrend market now technically. Not much wrong with the chart other than being short term overbought. Only thing that spooks me about taking this inverse Bond trade is you are fighting the Fed. But looking at TBT today which is the double bear 20yr Bond I see it is ignoring the stock market selloff today so far and is up a tad.