Warmer than average over most of the lower 48 with much warmer than average conditions expected over the desert SW. Cooler to near-normal conditions over the Pacific NW and the Great Lakes States.

The Climate forecast above follows the NAEFS (North American Ensemble forecast) which is a blend of the US GFS ensembles and Canadian GEM models and would be expected to perform better than either ensemble alone. it does differ from the CPC (US Climate Prediction Centre forecast valid for generally the same period which shows a large area of below average temperature over the East.

This week will feature a strong disturbance exiting the Northern Rockies this morning. Most of the energy of this disturbance will move slowly E thru the week but a small portion will head SSW into the desert then lift NE into TX during the latter half of the week. Drought-stricken W Tx should get some beneficial rain this week. Meanwhile the northern portion of the disturbance will bring rain and thunderstorms to the upper Midwest and western Great lakes states early this week that will spread to most of the East Coast by mid week. Finally the disturbance will develop a fairly strong coastal storm near the Virgina coast late Wednesday night that will rapidly develop and result in strong wind and heavy rain over much of the NE Thursday and Friday.

Given relatively warm conditions in the S and relatively cool over the NE during the reporting period, this week's injection numbers should be on the low side of estimates.