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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Corn next week

Based on mass liquidation in crude by JP Morgan...the crude market should be consolidating...allowing the the grains to consolidate next week as well. Outside markets going forward will have minimal effect on corn prices as we finish up planting this coming week. Weather and crop condition becomes 90% of the pricing influence thereafter. The USDA gave us a bearish tone for the corn market last Thursday..by manipulating the feed numbers to increase carry. Farmers do have some corn in various parts of the count (not much). No selling by them, due to planting progress. The basis should widen as they wait for higher prices to sell. With the uncertainty of the growing season, I reasonably believe that weather premium will be upon us soon. It is not what you plant...it's what you grow. As some of you may know, recently there seen the squeeze play in May corn...so, there will be no margin for error to go below trend line yields. Weather is bearish currently ...but, that could change rapidly. Monday may give us are first crop condition report with the crop progress. When everyone is bearish, that is when one gets bullish. ...so, my advice is not to buy into all the commercial interest that 4 dollar corn is coming. ..of course the commercials ( ADM/Cargill) would love to buy discounted corn to sell to the Chinese...based on their market influence of disinformation. Corn may dive more into more oversold prices...but looking forward into fall and next year...there is nothing bearish about this market.

S.B. (limitup)