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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Nat Gas/Major Test on the Pullback *PIC*

Nat GAS broke above 2.48 and 2.65 resistance and approached the major downtrendline. Not a big bounce but the 1st significant one in a long time. What is the acid test with July NG is the pullback from this high. The 2.65 or the short uptrendline is not holding as support but on a major downtrend like this is not expected to. Next support to be tested is 2.48. "IF" this can hold as support and turn back up again one could expect a double top to the recent highs and an attempt to break out above this and the downtrendline. Presently with the recent rally the 20ema has crossed above the 50ema and holding. The RSI 21 is also above the 50 line. It has been a year since both these technicals have accomplished this. Failure to hold above 2.48 could see a retracement to a double bottom at or near 2.10. Bottom line: Major pullback test now with July NG which will prove NG is reversing its trend or still a bear with just a dead cat bounce to show for its trouble. Note the Modified MACD is still a 'long term' bear and has not yet cleared the 0 line. Also note the "long July/Short Jan/03 Spread trade is stronger that the July contract which shows the negative contango is changing in favour of the front months which is more bullish that previously.