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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: July Crude/Breaking out / Razor *PIC*
In Response To: (Message Deleted by Poster) ()

Well the 81.21 was the last low in early June. But there is little support there. Look at the late Sept price action which is much the same as lately. Then see price bounce up and then selloff to the early Oct low. This early Oct low was also an SPX low and DX high much like we have been seeing lately. And that was also about 50 trading days long in the selloff much like now with SPX etc. See DX rally 7 pts straight up for the entire month of Sept/11 and this time has rallied the entire month of this May 5 pts straight up as well while inverse markets were trashed. Imporant to see this clearly!
The difference this time specifically with Crude is the downtrendline is steeper this time and it was violated last night and this morning which removes a lot of stop losses that are just above it. The bears will have much less confidence when price gets back up there again and likely back off. The stubborn bears will have to cover on another break above the downtrendline and a reversal will likely take place. I'm more concerned with this recent high also being cleared for insurance for a reversal. That means price needs to clear and close above 87.03 to complete the buy signal. And then of course price needs to clear the falling 20ema to know you have a long to hang onto. And all this hinges on DX closing below 82. But support then with July Crude is the Oct low of 77. With the extreme oversold technicals only a severe washout would see this breakdown. Not impossible as many high profile analysts are predicting $71 oil. But I'd prefer to let the chart be the best technical analyst as it has a better track record. For now price is between 81.21 weak support and 87.03 resistance. While that is a wide spread it can be traded just like any other channel but wont likely last long as it is very short term in length. The breakout or breakdown of these levels will likely be swift and strong. Not something easy to catch. But it all hinges on DX closing below 82 "OR" breaking out again to new highs. The Weekly chart of DX is very bullish with next resistance way up there at 89.70. A run up there would really kill inverse markets. Not out of the question with the summer time frame. But 'time' is about up on this selloff as far as cycles go. Tomorrow will be 50 trading days since the early SPX high and these selloffs end around 50 to 58 trading days. So like the guy with the beard and sign said "The End is Near",lol..

P.S. I just realized who Razor was (I'm a slow learner). I hope you have a delete password to use. You can get one if you make a profile. You should use it and not post your email address on this site or other sites as it is showing on my computer. You could end up with a ton of spam or viruses.