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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Trout - Market Turns
In Response To: Trout - Market Turns ()

"We are both perfectionists (perhaps a handicap in this business) and are trying to detect a condition that triggers a turn."

That is not "perhaps a handicap in this business", that is a handicap in this business(take that from a fellow perfectionist). Perfection is an impossibility. You and Trades(hi to trades) will be looking for that days after you both die unless one of you dies first...speaks to God about his crystal ball, then establish communications with the one left here and sends messages from said crystal ball...it aint happenin. The only thing perfect in this business is that it's perfectly F'ed up. That's all I have to say about that.

The way I understand Trouts 50/66 is it can be one or it can be the other and a range defined by both...buy-able or sell-able as indicated by the RTT and a set of conditions ON one OR the other AND withing that range along with a pretty specific TRADE TRIGGER. Said trade trigger being, in my estimation, very nearly a stand alone indicator.

Is it perfect...nope. Trout, as long as he has been doing it and according to his reporting here, maintains what success rate? 75-80%?. I only mention this because you state that Trout has a holy grail of 66% and that is not the way I see what he says and indicates to me that you may be misunderstanding the subject matter. I could be wrong, of course, and should, as many times is the case, keep my mouth shut lest I show my ass. :-0

Trades used to be pretty damned good making calls in here using what I thought was a combination of patterns and trendlines. I would have thought with his understanding of those things the trip to incorporating Trouts tactics and methods would have been short.

I hope I didn't misunderstand what you are saying. :-)

P.S. The holy grail does not exist in this dimension. You can hunt it, but trade what you see.