well, maybe 2850 won't be hit as time is running out. You would look for a 20-25% gross decline from the top number (2850), if the pattern holds true, over the coming few months.

This all lines up well in terms of risk avoidance to a short since there are signs that will occur that either the trade is correct or not over the next bit of time.

The "correction" we have seen so far is also normal in a bull market seasonally and is a potential problem for a short. That's a thorn in the side.

You pays your money, and takes what comes.