The Commodity Trading Forum
is a presentation of 		Free
Commodity Chart Service
Commodity Menu
My Charts Menu
Intraday Quotes
Stock Market Data		 News for Traders
Weather Maps
Commodity Brokers
Premium Resources		 Learning Center
Short Course
Glossary
Trader's Books		 Trader's Forum
Live Chat

TFC Home		 F.A.Q.
Suggestion Box
Advertising Info.

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

Commodity Trading Discussion Forum

Re: Gold--and the dollar

Posted By: hugo
Date: Sunday, 4 May 2008, at 8:27 a.m.

In Response To: Re: Gold--taking its time (hugo)

Over the weekend I'm getting a sense that lots of folks think the dollar has turned and made a significant bottom. Not sure how that will translate into trading, but the chart is pointing up just as the euro is pointing down. Trend followers could pile on here. Lowering my target for the euro to about 1.48 before any kind of a turnaround.

At the same time I don't get the sense that anyone other than goldbugs are bullish on gold. Most are neutral, waiting to see what happens, or waiting to see how low it will go. The optimistic goldbugs were pointing to 850 as the turning point last week and before. It went a little lower than most expected. I think if we run back down below 850, gold should let loose with not much support until the 800 area. But even 800 shouldn't last long given not much talk about it. Into the 700s is on people's minds and ultimately the big target around 730.

Fundamentally, that 700-730 point is a good one given that it was the point of blastoff last Aug when this subprime (haven't heard that word much lately) fiasco hit. Lots of folks think the worst is over and that the ship was righted. Don't know about that, but things have quieted down. Gold should head right back down to pre-subprime levels.

I was expecting gold to drop last Summer to the 550 area.
In the extreme, I still think a meltdown could drive it there. That would have to take place over the next 2-3 weeks though. If gold should thrust below 720, watch out for that meltdown that could happen overnight.

Weekly gold still looks like a good match to the 87 stock market meltdown. In that kind of a market, gold would race through 730 and get to 550 in a day or two. A huge bounce would follow to about 700 and stabilize there. 87 was a once-in-a-decade kind of thing, so it is not something to plan too much for. Markets have matured and deepened since 87 too. But you never know. Lots of speculative money is in gold. Could just be a washout coming.

And think 700 is about the upper limit on the real value of gold anyway. That's 20x the old $35/oz gold that held for decades prior to the 60s. Don't think real inflation is any higher than 20x early 60s prices. 3c stamp is now 42c. (I think).

hugo

If you want to print this message, you might have better results, and waste less paper if you print this printer friendly page.

Password:

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If you'd like to include a link to another page with your message,
please provide both the URL address and the title of the page:

Optional Link URL:
Optional Link Title:

If you'd like to have the option of deleting your post later,
please provide a password (CASE SENSITIVE!):

Password:
Save Password: Yes No
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

Commodity Trading Discussion Forum is maintained by Mike Ritchie with WebBBS 5.00.

To report abuse of this Forum, please send email to: admin1@tradingcharts.com