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Commodity Trading Discussion Forum

Re: USD - How far?

Posted By: hugo
Date: Wednesday, 7 May 2008, at 10:40 p.m.

In Response To: USD - How far? (Dieter)

All this talk about inflation...

I think the Fed is actually doing a heroic job to fight off deflation--pumping all that money into the system to ward off credit default. Housing is a big chunk of the economy. It has been deflating at the same rate it was inflating 5 years ago.

The inflation was already in the system. It just got pushed into commodities such as oil, gold and grains when housing collapsed. Commodities are probably at their highs right now.

The dollar is bottoming--at least in the shortterm. Gold is set to take us to a lower level....waiting...waiting.
It is being held up by oil. Waiting for that to top out too.

Seems to me the dollar has bottomed because of the prospects for recovery with the rate cuts in place. It is not necessarily the Fed raising rates that will support the dollar, but the growth in a recovering economy that will. Investing in various US markets will then bring a good return.

Gold turned yesterday. Should be ready to drop to 800 any day now.
hugo

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