Welcome to the TFC Commodity Trading Forum.
Please feel welcome to join in on these informative ongoing discussions about trading futures and commodities.

The Trading Forum is intended for the open discussion of commodities trading. The management of this Forum does not agree or disagree with the ideas exchanged, and does not exert editorial control over the message posted herein. Read and post at your own risk. The risk of loss in trading or commodities can be substantial. We discourage the use of this Forum to promote trading that is acknowledged to be risky. Please note: many links from the Forum lead to pages on other web sites. We cannot take responsibility for nor endorse the information presented on those sites.

TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: methods/roger
In Response To: Re: methods/roger ()

you stated...
"We have seen many of your calls and many of them have not been correct. Last one I recall was in Jan-Feb I think of last year on the grains when you called a bottom and prices continued down."

Your choice of example does nothing but prove my techniques. THE low in beans was Feb. 4th 2010. 10 weeks in advance I stated that my cycle methods projected a turn for January 25th-31st. That low hasn't been broken even to this date in beans, which is over a year later! Corn and wheat did go a little lower into June.

You stated...
"I don't recall others than the seasonal low at the end of Sept a couple of years ago that is visible on any free Seasonal trend chart."

If that is the case why don't you forecast a low for us in Sept. using your seasonals. Better yet, we'll even accept it if you identify it a day or two AFTER it occurs. No pressure.

you stated...
"If your studies have any validity to them and if you understand them you should clarify whether this may be only a short term or intermediate term or weak or strong or likely top or bottom..."

That is EXACTLY what I have done. The major low of 9-8-09 was called to be a low that would not be broken for months and months. I used the word "major" every time I spoke of it. I went so far as to say it WOULD NOT BE BROKEN. How much clarity do you need? Identifying a point that will not be broken is the clearest possible language. I've done exactly what you are asking and look how you are characterizing it (calling it simple seasonals). As for this top in corn that is presently unfolding, I said on March 7th "I believe corn has made a major top...I believe corn is going to have a MAJOR drop".

you stated...
" Why anyone would care if a top or bottom is in place is beyond me other than to say "I called it". "

You can't possibly mean that. Everyone on here repeats the mantra that the "Trend is your friend." Even in your response you said "The trend is up and only a counter trend trader would have considered shorting..." One can only identify the trend by identifying tops and bottoms. If a top or bottom is never identified, how can you ever trade with the trend. So of course we MUST know if a top or bottom is in place, because it defines the trend.

You continue to imply that I'm trying to get you and other to "look at me". I'm doing nothing of the sort. I'm trying to get you and others to look at the market. It is amazing laboratory of behavior, and you are ignoring some amazing demonstrations that prove the market is much more than you think.


Messages In This Thread

Re: methods/roger