Welcome to the TFC Commodity Trading Forum.
Please feel welcome to join in on these informative ongoing discussions about trading futures and commodities.

The Trading Forum is intended for the open discussion of commodities trading. The management of this Forum does not agree or disagree with the ideas exchanged, and does not exert editorial control over the message posted herein. Read and post at your own risk. The risk of loss in trading or commodities can be substantial. We discourage the use of this Forum to promote trading that is acknowledged to be risky. Please note: many links from the Forum lead to pages on other web sites. We cannot take responsibility for nor endorse the information presented on those sites.

TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: New Rally Highs/ Symour *PIC*

Here is the triple bear small cap Russell 2000 ETF:TZA. Overlaid in blue is the SPX ETF:SPY. Note the extreme volatility and high beta of the TZA. And the small caps tend to lead the market up and lead the market down historically. So it pays to watch the small cap index for a guide. With SPY making new highs the small cap Russell 2000 did not which is a warning. But being on the wrong side of a triple ETF is about the same as being wrong with an option as it erodes continuously all the time even when the SPY is just going sideways. There is a negative bias to these triple ETFs both bull and bear. It also exists in the double ETFs as well but not as severe. Note to the bottom left of the chart where it shows a 1 for 3 stock adjustment. That means for every 3 shares you had of TZA they gave you 1 share of the newly priced TZA because they would not let the ETF go to zero. This happens with many of those double and triple ETFs. EX: The double bear Silver has done this more than once. Plus many others. So if your timing is wrong you lose badly and even a sideways market you lose. These double and triple ETFs were designed for very short term trading to catch moves at key turning points and not ever to hold onto for any length of time. Note the selloff with TZA "relative" to the SPY. Price is now bottoming on the Feb lows but that doesn't mean this will hold as support regardless. All one can do is take a position with a defined stop loss at each possible turning point and try to catch a reversal. But this doubling and tripling of each day's change does have a negative bias that can't be ignored even when on the right track. One needs a very strong continuous move in the right direction to really make money on this type of ETF. Many are wrong and hold these ETFs like a stock 'hoping' it will come back. That is a receipt for financial disaster. Trading the double bear Russell 2000 ETF TWM would be a better bet as it has less erosion and like its underlying Russell 2000 small cap Index it also leads the market. So if the market is going to selloff it will under perform the SPY giving you a heads up. Not the same leverage but less risk. Risk to Reward is what it's all about. To get an early jump on a correction punch in the spread IWM/SPY. This is the small cap Russell 2000 compared to the SPY. This will roll over 'early' and give you plenty of time to exit long positions even with the SPY hitting new highs. One can then either do a spread trade of long SPY short IWM as then the SPY will outperform the IWM. I'll post a chart of the spread trade next.